963
FXUS61 KBGM 032339
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
739 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation discussion has been updated.

Temperatures were lowered compared to prior forecast for
central to especially eastern portions of the area again
Saturday. Also, a minor lake response is now expected Sunday
night into early Monday, with mixed rain-to- snow showers in
Central NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Though generally warmer through Saturday, weak boundaries
will cause temperature differences across the region and
chances for scattered showers with isolated thunder.

2) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
late Saturday through Sunday morning. A few storms late Saturday
could be strong to severe, and locally heavy rainfall could
occur for already-sensitive areas.

3) Behind the front it will be breezy and colder, with chances
of mixed rain and snow in some parts of the area late Sunday
night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
While a warmer regime is trying to overtake the area, there are
nuances that are making it more successful in some locations
than others. Cool air damming from southeasterly low level flow
has held temperatures cooler-than-forecast for the eastern Twin
Tiers, Poconos, and Catskills. Meanwhile, downsloping of that
flow in the Finger Lakes to Syracuse areas is helping them
realize their full warming, with highs still reaching lower 70s
there. Meanwhile, veering to southwesterly wind is finally
starting to occur ahead of a weak cool front trailing from low
pressure in Quebec. This will still get the rest of the area
into at least the 60s this afternoon, albeit down a few degrees
from prior expectations.

The weak front will dip through the area late this afternoon
into evening, with little forcing and also limited moisture.
Scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunder can be
anticipated but by their very nature missing some locations.
Severe risk is pretty doubtful, but 40-50 knot flow in the
3-6km layer could potentially lead to a few stronger wind gusts
if cells can materialize in western PA-NY, perhaps edging
towards Steuben County.

After that boundary passes, southeasterly low level flow gets
going again with yet another setup for cool air damming. Above
850mb it is quite warm, but a strong shallow inversion is likely
to hold back temperatures from their full potential and thus the
lower-than-prior expectations for highs of upper 50s-mid 60s.
Lower elevations of the Wyoming Valley to Bradford and Steuben
Counties will be less prone to the extra clouds and cool air and
thus are more likely to reach into upper 60s-lower 70s. Despite
the inversion in the lower levels, there will still be waves
translating with a touch of instability aloft, so isolated to
scattered pre-frontal showers and thunder cannot be ruled out as
the day carries on. That is correct, another front will be
approaching, though this one will be stronger.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong cold pushes through the region Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
evening through early Sunday morning. The nocturnal timing of
this frontal passage is not optimal for severe thunderstorms,
with a lack of surface-based instability. However, the front
will be strongly-forced with at least some instability aloft,
thus the marginal risk for isolated damaging wind gusts west of
Interstate 81. Perhaps the more important thing to watch, given
our already wet antecedent conditions, will be potential for
isolated flooding issues. Areal average of one to two thirds of
an inch of rainfall would ordinarily not be a problem, but there
are some spots very sensitive to additional rainfall right now.
Generally speaking the front will be progressive which should
limit the flood risk, however things will still need to be
monitored closely should locally higher amounts occur where they
are least needed.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
In the wake of the front, much colder air will advect across the
region Sunday through Tuesday. Highs of 50s-near 60 Sunday will
actually be very early, with level to falling temperatures
behind the front during the daytime. 850mb temperatures will be
quick to drop below freezing, initiating a post-frontal lake
response Sunday evening into early Monday. There will also be a
lobe of deeper moisture wrapping back around the low Monday.
Thus lake-enhanced snow or mixed rain-snow showers can be
anticipated, even though amounts will be light. A clipper-like
system will then reinforce the chilly air Monday night into
Tuesday, which could actually bring another round of snow
showers to the region, before temperatures trend back up for the
remainder of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will move through the region this evening
veering winds from their current WSW direction to the NW and
eventually light and variable as the front stalls over PA. A lot
of variables will be at play for the ceilings tonight given
airmass changes but overall the expectation is for MVFR to take
hold with isolated IFR developing in response to moist air
cooling behind the front.

Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by late Saturday
morning before the surface front begins returning toward
northern PA and central NY as a warm front. This will
reintroduce layered clouds lowering again to at least MVFR
during the afternoon with visibilities also deteriorating as
drizzle and showers develop.

Outlook:

Saturday Night...Flight restrictions likely in periods of
showers and possible thunderstorms.

Sunday...A frontal system crosses the region with additional
showers and restrictions possible, especially early in the day.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of rain and
snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...BTL/JAB

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion