998
FXUS61 KBGM 141149
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Canadian air moves in behind the front with lake effect
snow showers today through Monday. A weak wave of low pressure
drops out of Canada on Monday afternoon with with more
widespread snow showers. Warmer conditions develop by midweek
with chances for rain increasing on Thursday with an approaching
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

650 AM Update

Winter weather advisory will expire at 7 AM EST across NE PA
this morning. The light snow is now exiting the area with little
to no additional accumulation expected.

Previous Discussion Below

Light to moderate snow will continue across the
southern Catskills and NE PA through about daybreak before
exiting east out of the forecast area. Best estimates are that
2-4 inches of snow has fallen across a good portion of the
Wyoming Valley and Poconos as of 3 AM EST, with another inch or
so expected to fall by the time the snow ends around 7 AM EST. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for this area of NE
PA until 7 AM. Local PA511 traffic webcams show many interstates
well covered in snow early this morning, with observed
visibility down below 1/2 mile at times being reported by the
ASOS at AVP and PA mesonet stations. Temperatures will hold in
the mid-10s to mid-20s early this morning.

Winter weather advisories for lake effect snow are in effect for
northern Oneida county, and go into effect later this
morning/midday for Onondaga and Southern Cayuga Counties.

The next main story will be the return of lake effect snow and
snow showers today. A lake effect snow band is currently
extending off the east end of lake Ontario across Oswego county
and into NW portions of Oneida county; near Camden and Florence.
Model guidance shows this lake effect snow band gradually
dropping south, to along the Onondaga/Oswego county border by
around 8-10 AM EST this morning. Before that time, several
inches of snow are likely to accumulate across NW Oneida county.

By late morning, the lake effect snow band will very gradually
nudge south into northern portions of Onondaga county, and
central Cayuga. A cold frontal passage then picks up the lake
effect snow band and drops it south, while transforming into
multi-bands this afternoon. Lake effect snow showers rapidly
blossom across the Finger Lakes region later this afternoon and
evening in the very cold NW flow pattern, as 850mb temperatures
fall to around -18C and moisture increases on the back side of
the 500/700mb low. The closed mid and upper level low does open
up into a positively tilted trough by evening. A well aligned
NNW flow continues this evening, with multiple lake effect snow
bands likely extending across the Finger Lakes and into the Twin
Tiers of NY/PA. Snow to liquid ratios are forecast to be very
high late this afternoon and evening, likely around 20:1.
Forecast soundings from the 00z NAM show co-located atmospheric
lift centered with a well moistened snow growth layer between
about 2k ft agl to 6k ft agl...the snow growth layer gradually
lowers overnight as temperatures fall...getting down to about
1.5 k ft agl around 1 AM EST early Monday morning. While snow
amounts are only expected to be marginal, between about 2-6
inches in the advisories zones, there will also be some gusty NW
winds up to 25 mph which could create localized lower visibility
and blowing snow at times. Outside of the main lake effect
zones, there will still snow snow showers and flurries around
this afternoon into tonight. It will be turning very cold, with
lows in the single digits to lower 10s. Combined with the wind,
apparent temperatures will bottom out between about 0 to 10
below zero in many areas.

The lake effect snow showers attempt to consolidate, and
gradually lift back north heading into Monday morning, as upper
level ridging starts to build in, backing the flow more westerly
in the boundary layer. The next shortwave clipper system looks
t move into the area Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a
period of light warm air advection snow to most of Central NY
and perhaps parts of NE PA. Minor snow accumulations up to about
1 inch are expected from this weak weather system. Monday will
feature more cold and below average temperatures as highs only
reach into the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A few scattered snow showers and lake effect snow will still be
around behind the shortwave disturbance for Monday night. The
low level flow looks to be more west or even west-southwesterly,
which would push the bulk of the lake effect snow showers north
of I-90 overnight. For the rest of the area clouds gradually
decrease, becoming mostly clear from south to north overnight.
Another cold night, with lows in the single digits to mid-10s
expected. The lake effect snow showers are forecast to shift
even further north on Tuesday, with a good chance for morning
sunshine across the Twin Tiers and NE PA. Clouds do eventually
increase heading into the afternoon as a weak wave approaches.
Temperatures will still be running below average, with highs in
the 20s once again. Tuesday night features dry weather, partly
cloudy skies and a steady south wind between 5 to 15 mph. Not
quite as cold, with seasonable lows in the mid-10s to low 20s.

Wednesday features mostly cloudy conditions with a chance for
afternoon rain and snow showers, especially across CNY as a
shortwave rolls by to our north. Otherwise, it will be milder
with highs forecast to reach the upper 30s to lower 40s under a
steady southwest wind around 10 mph. Brief high pressure brings
partly cloudy and seasonable weather for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday is looking very warm out ahead of a strong cold
front and low pressure system, with highs reaching the low to
mid-40s. With the warm air in place, the initial phase of this
system is expected to bring rain showers, and possibly even some
gusty showers as LLJ increases to near 70 knots at 850 mb late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Behind the cold front, lingering
precipitation will transition to snow showers by Friday morning
or afternoon as 850mb temperatures fall back to around -12C to
-15C. Lake effect snow showers will be possible in the cold
northwest flow heading into Friday night.

Model guidance begins to diverge towards the end of the
forecast period, however the overall pattern appears to remain
active through the upcoming weekend, with chances for snow and
rain showers each day and fluctuating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Light snow will taper to flurries and end over the next hour or
two across most of the area.

Otherwise as winds turn north northwesterly, lake effect snow
showers will become the primary concern, with IFR restrictions
possible today, especially near SYR and RME, before activity
becomes more scattered and shifts south impacting ITH, BGM and
ELM by the late afternoon and evening. There could be occasional
IFR vsby restrictions at BGM and ITH in this time frame. Overall
MVFR ceilings are expected to linger across most sites
throughout this period with some moments of VFR possible.

Northwest winds increase today and into tonight, mainly 6-15
kts, with gusts up around 20 kts expected.


Outlook...

Monday...Occasional restrictions with a period of lake effect
snow showers, and more widespread snow showers expected for the
afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Potential frontal passage with rain showers and
minor restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ009.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Monday for
     NYZ017.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ018.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...ES/MJM

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion