932
FXUS61 KBGM 262352
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few isolated showers Saturday night around the
Poconos and southern Catskills, dry weather will be in store
through the weekend and early next week with high pressure
largely in control. Temperatures will be on the rise this
weekend and will remain above average through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The isolated lake-effect rain showers that have been around CNY,
mainly north of Route 20, are expected to diminish by early this
evening, and skies turn out mostly clear as high pressure begins
to build in. With light winds in place, it will be a good set
up overnight and early tomorrow morning for widespread areas of
low clouds and fog. Lows tonight range from the upper 40s to the
mid 50s.

High pressure overhead tomorrow will lead to dry conditions to
start the weekend with a mix of clouds and sun. With another
trough digging into the Great Lakes region and into the SE U.S.,
the flow aloft will become more southerly, advecting in warmer
air and sending temperatures back above average for the
afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in the mid to upper
70s.

An area of low pressure is expected to move up the eastern
seaboard along the mid-Atlantic coast and move offshore by early
Sunday. This low can push enough moisture northward for a low
chance of showers Saturday night across NE PA, mainly the
Poconos, and the southern Catskills. However, this low has been
trending a bit farther to our south and east the past couple of
model runs. Areas of fog will return again Saturday night with
lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A sprawling area of high pressure will build back in on Sunday
and lead to the start of another prolonged period of dry conditions
for the area. After the morning fog burns off, Sunday will
feature plenty of sunshine and a very warm and well above
average afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows
Sunday night range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Monday looks
to start with sunshine, then high clouds are expected to start
streaming in from the south, but it will remain quite warm with
highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model trends continue to show a potential tropical system
possibly reaching the Southeast coast around Tuesday of next
week. Over our region, a fresh, strong area of high pressure is
expected to push south of out Canada and would keep any
precipitation associated with the tropical system shunted to the
south. Dry conditions are currently expected through at least
midweek. With the high building in from the north, cool, dry
Canadian air filtering in from the north will lead to more
seasonable temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday. This air mass
will also likely increase the frost/freeze risk, especially
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected early this evening across all
terminals. As skies clear tonight, widespread low clouds and
fog is expected to form, with confidence in LIFR conditions
highest at ELM, but restrictions are possible at all other
terminals except SYR. Although clouds are expected to move back
into the region sometime overnight, this may hinder fog
formation at some sites. Once low clouds and fog clear early
morning, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF
with high pressure in control along with light winds.


Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. IFR valley
fog will be possible in the early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK/ES

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion