149
FXUS61 KBGM 091140
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
640 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased winds and wind gusts today into early this evening,
especially across the Finger Lakes, Syracuse area and east into
Madison/Oneida counties where a Wind Advisory is in effect 7 AM EST
today until 10 PM this evening. Temperatures were increased today,
as less rain is expected and there could even be some breaks in the
overcast from time to time. Temperatures were lowered a bit on
Saturday and timing of the onset of rain slowed down several hours.
Chances for a period of snow showers and lake effect snow increased
Sunday into Sunday night, amounts still look minor overall. Winds
and wind gusts were increased Sunday into Sunday night and it now
looks quite windy with gusts of 30-45 mph possible at times.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much warmer and windy today with a period of rain showers late
morning into the afternoon hours. Some locations will see advisory
level winds today into this evening (Steuben, Yates, Schuyler,
Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties). Winds are
southerly this morning and into the afternoon, before turning
westerly by this evening behind the front.

2) Another round of rain moves in from the south Saturday afternoon
and evening. A little sleet or wet snow could mix in, mainly north
of Binghamton in the evening hours. Precipitation amounts are
trending lighter, mainly under a half inch for our area.

3)Strong cold front moves through early Sunday, with colder
temperatures, strong gusty winds and snow showers wrapping back in
from the NW, transitioning to lake effect snow showers Sunday night.

4) Generally quiet and seasonably mild weather arrives for early to
middle portion of next week. Turning colder with closer to average
temperatures for the end of the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front is pushing east across the area early this morning.
There is wide range in temperatures as of 3 AM EST, with some of the
deeper valley locations east of I-81 still in the mid-20s, meanwhile
locations across the Finger Lakes are already in the mid-40s, with
low 50s not far behind across Western NY. Temperatures will continue
rising during the predawn hours and right through the daytime hours.
Look for highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s around the region this
afternoon.

Southerly winds are already increasing early this morning
with a few locations across the Finger Lakes and Central Southern
Tier reporting gusts of 30-40 mph. A strong low level jet arrives
this morning, with 50-60 kt winds at 850mb, increasing to 60-65 kts
this afternoon just ahead of the cold front. Some of this wind
energy will mix down to the surface, especially in the favored
downsloping valleys of the Finger Lakes and terrain south of
Syracuse/Utica area. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Steuben,
Yates, Schuyler, Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and Oneida
counties from 7 AM EST Today Until 10 PM this evening.

The 00z GFS boundary layer winds reach 40 kts across these areas by
7 AM this morning and continue around 40 kts through the day into
this evening. These boundary layer winds are often a good proxy for
expected peak wind gusts. There will also likely be some strong,
advisory level wind gusts along and behind the cold front which
moves west to east across the area between about 4-8 PM, with the
strong gusty winds persisting until late evening before quickly
diminishing overnight. The peak wind speeds today and this evening
quickly drop off from the Twin Tiers and Catskills south into NE
PA...where peak gusts should be 35 mph or lower today in most
locations.

Otherwise, today will feature mostly cloudy skies with rain showers
sweeping across the area this afternoon and early evening. Rainfall
amounts will range from a few hundreths of an inch up to two-tenths
of an inch for most locations. Northern Oneida county will see the
highest rain totals through this evening due to the southerly
upslope enhancement into the Tug Hill...look for a quarter to half
inch of rain here.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After dry conditions tonight into Saturday morning another round of
rain will push into the area from the the Mid-Atlantic Saturday
afternoon and evening. Dual low pressure systems will approach the
area, one moving across the Great Lakes and the other moving up
along the coast. This will likely cause our area to see lower QPF
amounts as we get split between these two low centers. Current data
brings rain into the Wyoming Valley/Poconos by midday or early
afternoon...to the NY/PA border by 3-4 PM and to I-90 by 5-6 PM. A
weak high over New England will keep easterly winds and colder air
locked into the area. Expect temperatures to range from near
freezing in the normally colder spots to around 40 in the more urban
valley locations. Overall expect precipitation type to be mainly
cold rain; however some wet snow flake, sleet pellets or even
isolated pockets of brief freezing rain cannot be ruled out,
especially north and east of Binghamton due to the marginal temperatures
throughout the atmospheric column. The rain and pockets of wintry
mix will continue into Saturday evening. Then the cold front should
arrive after midnight bringing much colder air aloft to the area,
as 850mb temperatures fall to -10C by daybreak Sunday. QPF amounts
should be mainly a half inch or less over the area and any
wintry precip accumulations should be minor to non-existent for
most locations...except up to around 1 inch of snow possible
for northern Oneida county before sunrise Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Sunday could see steady to even falling temperatures through day as
cold air advection takes hold. Model guidance has a mid level dry
slot over the area in the morning, so not expecting much precip
during this time. By afternoon deep moisture wraps back into the
area on the western side of the departing low pressure system. This
will bring scattered to numerous snow showers into the forecast
across central NY, with isolated to scattered shower activity for NE
PA. Highs will be in the 30s and west-northwest winds become quite
breezy to windy, especially in the evening and overnight hours as
the pressure rise couplet moves overhead in combination with a 55kt
low level northwesterly jet at 850mb. Lake effect snow shower
activity continues into the Sunday night, before gradually tapering
off as the deeper moisture wanes toward Monday morning. Only a few
flurries may linger after sunrise Monday, with partial clearing also
expected. Overall, light snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are
possible over the 36 hour period from Saturday evening through 7 AM
Monday morning over north-central NY, fading to just dustings across
the Southern Tier and Catskills, with none expected in Wyoming and
Susquehanna Valleys of NE PA.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

The previous trough quickly exits and flattens by Monday morning,
bringing a chance for some partial clearing and sunshine. The one
caveat is that the latest guidance shows a warm front pushing
through with more mid level moisture and clouds for Monday
afternoon, especially up north. Overall temperatures will still be
above normal Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 30s to
lower 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s. The next trough and
associated clipper system looks to move into the area later
Wednesday into Thursday, eventually bringing a fairly strong cold
front through the area. Temperatures will fall back closer to
average levels for the end of next week and there will be chances
for a few snow showers around.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concerns today will be very strong LLWS developing this
morning into the evening hours. 45-55kt shear out of the south
up to FL020 will be present as a low pressure system moves in
from the west and winds become very strong across the area. Rain
showers moving through late this morning into the early evening
hours will bring MVFR restrictions to to all terminals, with
MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings remaining across the area through the
overnight hours behind a cold front that will pass through in
the evening. ELM is the only terminal at this time where the
ceilings are expected to remain VFR. Previous IFR at AVP has
lifted as there does not seem to be as much moisture in the area
as previously modeled. There is some hints at IFR ceilings at
BGM/SYR/RME late tonight but confidence is not high enough to
include it at this time.



Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...Restrictions likely with rain
showers, mixing with snow showers late Saturday night.

Sunday...Possible restrictions with scattered rain and snow
showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-015>018-
     022-023-036-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion