287
FXUS61 KBGM 011717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1217 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light flurries off of the finger lakes remains over the twin tiers
this morning. Cold weather advisory is set to expire this morning as
temperatures climb into the teens today and fall into the single
digits tonight. There could still be some cold spots tonight
especially over northern Oneida, but not near advisory criteria.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Arctic cold continues today before a modest warmup begins
early this week.

2) West northwest flow brings lake effect snow showers Tuesday
into midweek, followed by a clipper system late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Selective cloud cover continues to impact minimum temperatures this
morning. Pockets of clearing has resulted in lower temperatures for
the eastern portion of the region, while extensive cloud cover over
central NY has kept temperatures more stable. Despite this certain
areas will still see wind chills ranging -10 to -20, especially over
northeast PA where its a bit more breezy. As a result, cold weather
advisory remains in effect through this morning. Refrained from
reissuing an advisory for tonight as clouds are again expected to
hold with temperatures in the single digits. Highs today will only
climb into the teens or slightly lower. After tomorrow, ridging will
build in to start the work week and this will help increase
temperatures across the region. High temperatures on Monday will
feel like a relief, even though it will only get into the 20s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A short wave passes through the region Tuesday into Wednesday with
returning west to northwest flow. This will kick off more lake
effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario especially over
central NY. This pattern holds through most of mid week keeping
lake effect showers through Thursday as well. Attention then
shifts to a clipper system that tracks north of our region
Friday into Saturday. This has potential to bring widespread
light snow to the area. Confidence in how much and the exact
track remains low at this time. Models however agree that
another arctic air mass follows by Saturday with 850 mb
temperatures falling to -22 to -25 degrees C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The current north-northwest flow will likely continue to lock
MVFR/Fuel Alt clouds in place through much of the day today.
RME and SYR may try to scatter out later this evening, likely
to become VFR after about 01Z. CIGs may lower slightly through
the day under this cloud shield, with IFR vsbys possible at BGM
and ELM over the next few hours due to narrow finger lake snow
bands and blowing snow.

Outlook...

Monday Morning...Lingering MVFR to localize IFR CIGs continue
at most taf sites in the cold N-NW flow

Monday Afternoon Through Thursday..Mainly VFR; low chance (25%
or less) for snow showers and restrictions at times due to
occasional lake effect snow showers.

Friday...Restrictions possible with a system bringing snow.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ057-062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...KL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion