000
FXUS61 KBGM 251358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
MODERATION BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL READINGS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...BUT
DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LWR
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLING HADLING THE
VERY COOL AIR...WITH GUID BEING TOO WRM FOR CONDS. OTRW...CLD/PCPN
TRENDS IN GOOD SHAPE. PRVS DISC BLO.

430 AM UPDATE... DEFORMATION PCPN BAND PERSISTS EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS OUR ERN ZNS...WITH A DEEPENING UPR-LVL LOW PARKED NEAR NYC
ATTM. ONE MORE SIG SHRT WV WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPR LKS RGN AS OF THIS WRITING...AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD WRAP INTO THE UPPER LOW LTR TDY. ONCE THAT
HAPPENS...THE UPR VORTEX IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW EWD
PUSH OFF THE NEW ENG COAST. UNTIL THAT TIME...LOOK FOR NUMEROUS
-SHRA THIS AM...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCTD IN NATURE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. BACK TO THE
W...LTL OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

DUE TO MORE CLDS/PERSISTENT PCPN...THE CHILLIEST READINGS TDY WILL
BE ACRS ERN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN CERTAINLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 40S ONCE AGN. FARTHER W...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S...AND PROBABLY NEAR 60...SPCLY
ACRS NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS.

WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY...WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LR`S AND A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AT PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE AS THE LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE...SPCLY W OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
ALSO...WITH THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVING AWAY...GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM W TO E DURG THE OVERNIGHT PD. THIS MAY OPEN
THE DOOR FOR FROST CONDS ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. OF COURSE...THE PACE
THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT LTR TNT...AND THAT WINDS DIMINISH...WILL BE
KEY COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RESIDENT CHILLY AMS...AND TIME
OF YEAR (MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS PLANTING TIME FOR MANY
LOCALS)...WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO HOIST FROST ADVSYS FOR LATE
TNT/EARLY SUN.

SUN THROUGH MON CONTS TO LOOK DRY...WITH SKIES BCMG MAINLY
CLEAR...AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...AND HGTS ALOFT RISE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WRN ATLANTIC UPR LOW.

POTENTIALLY VERY COLD TEMPS LATE SUN NGT INTO EARLY MON WILL AGN
BE THE MAIN FCST HIGHLIGHT THIS PD. IF ANYTHING...SUN NGT STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RADIATING CONDS BY THIS TIME. THUS...AGN
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...WE`VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA...SAVE THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS. SOME UPR 20S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUALLY COLDER MORE PROTECTED VLYS.
HOWEVER...BY MON AFTN...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY...WITH HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 70 DEGS BY THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES AS DRY AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL START
TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AS
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KRME AND KSYR
LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
PUT IN TAF.


OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
     044>046-055>057-062.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion