SPC MD 515

MD 0515 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 133... FOR (NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Areas affected...(northeastern Colorado...southwestern
Nebraska...and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

Valid 252242Z - 260045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/local tornado risk continues within WW 133, across
northwestern Kansas, northeastern Colorado, and southwestern
Nebraska early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows numerous strong/severe storms
developing from just southeast of GLD southward across western
Kansas (into Tornado Watch 134), near and ahead of a dryline
analyzed over far eastern Colorado.  Meanwhile, additional
strong/severe storms are ongoing from near the surface low over
northeastern Colorado, east-southeastward across southwestern
Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas -- to the cool side of a
warm front bisecting Kansas from northwest to southeast.

An axis of moderate instability (2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE)
is indicated across the warm sector, bounded by the dryline on the
west, and the warm front on the northeast.  South-southeasterly
low-level flow across this area (veering to east-southeasterly north
of the warm front) beneath mid-level south-southwesterlies near 50
kt, is yielding favorable shear for rotating storms -- confirming
radar observations.

Storms moving north-northeastward out of northwestern Kansas into
southwestern Nebraska should weaken with time, as they move into a
more stable airmass north of the warm front.  Meanwhile, storms
nearer the front, and southward along the dryline, will remain
capable of producing very large hail (up to around baseball size)
and locally damaging wind gusts.  Tornado risk also remains evident,
and should increase this evening as a south-southeasterly low-level
jet ramps up to in excess of 50 kt with time.

..Goss.. 04/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40680315 40820262 40550112 40060029 39200017 38830039
            38300115 38430181 38950179 39580303 40130334 40680315